The Coders Guild

Outcome Map

The Coders Guild. 13 outcomes across three horizons, connecting strategy to execution.

Strategic Context

Four goals driving everything

Every outcome maps to at least one of these. Click a goal to filter.

Goal 1
Financial Self-Sufficiency
60 live apprentices on programme by June 2026, then 100, then 200. Cohort economics: 16 optimal, 12 workable, below that unit economics suffer.
Goal 2
Operational Independence
Extract Crispin from day-to-day operations. Fill the leadership gap through automation rather than hiring. Team and systems handle the routine.
Goal 3
Revenue Diversification
Shift from previous 70/30 bootcamp-apprenticeship mix to 60/20/20 (apprenticeships / direct sale / consultancy and licensing). Modular CPD, short courses, international licensing.
Goal 4
Increase Company Value
Build systems, data, and recurring revenue that make the business valuable regardless of who owns it.
Now: 5
Next: 5
Later: 3
By June 2026

Now — Hit 60 and keep quality

Five outcomes that must be delivered in the next three months.

NOW — STRATEGIC
60 live apprentices on programme
Financial Self-Sufficiency
CRISPIN / FRANCESCA
O1 MEDIUM
KRSuccess CriterionTargetOwner
KR1Live apprentices on programme60 by end of June (building from ~12 current, ~4 joining March, more in May/June)Crispin
2.4 Delivery team has no pipeline visibility7.4 Recruitment learners fall out
KR2Prospects in active outreach200+ by mid-AprilFrancesca
3.1 Sales depend on Crispin's brand3.5 Prospect list is exhaustible
KR3Leads generated80+ by end of AprilFrancesca
1.1 Self-service skills gap assessment1.2 Quality invisible pre-purchase3.1 Sales depend on Crispin's brand
KR4Deals committedSufficient to reach 60 live by end of June (accounting for current base + pipeline)Francesca / Crispin
1.1 Self-service skills gap assessment3.2 Crispin runs initial assessments3.3 No structured qualification process
The target is 60 live apprentices on programme, not 60 new enrolments. Currently at ~12 live with ~4 joining this month and a growing pipeline for May and June. Funnel numbers (KR2–4) are assumptions based on estimated conversion rates — adjust once real data lands by end of April. KR1 is the commitment. Everything else feeds it.

Conversion rate by funnel stage reported fortnightly — this is how you know whether the pipeline numbers are achievable and where to focus.
NOW — EXECUTION
Pipeline velocity drops from ~12 weeks to under 6 weeks
Financial Self-Sufficiency
FRANCESCA / SHELLEY
O2 MEDIUM
KRSuccess CriterionTargetOwner
KR1Average days in each pipeline stage Prospect→Lead <7d, Lead→Qualified <5d, Qualified→Committed <10d, Committed→Enrolled <20dFrancesca
2.1 Sales conversation data lost2.2 Front-load ops info from biz dev2.3 Employers asked same questions twice2.5 Lead data needs manual enrichment
KR2Average total elapsed days first contact to enrolledBelow 42 days (6 weeks) by JuneFrancesca / Shelley
1.1 Self-service skills gap assessment6.1 Sales process not AI-assisted
KR3Average days from first contact to disqualified Below 5 daysFrancesca
1.1 Self-service skills gap assessment3.3 No structured qualification process
KR4Compliance document completion time per learnerBelow 10 working daysFrancesca / Shelley
2.2 Front-load ops info from biz dev1.5 Payment type identified too late
KR5DAS connection completed before course startMin 15 working days before startFrancesca / Shelley
1.5 Payment type identified too late2.6 CRM struggles with complexity
Per-stage targets add up to 42 days, matching KR2. KR3 ensures a slow 'no' doesn't block pipeline capacity.
NOW — EXECUTION
Learner evidence quality and assessment performance predict 85%+ achievement
Financial Self-Sufficiency
SHELLEY / COACHES
O3 MEDIUM
KRSuccess CriterionTargetOwner
KR1Learners behind on portfolio submissionsNo more than 10% at any pointShelley / Coaches
5.4 No at-risk early warning4.2 No personalised learning plan
KR2Assessment pass rate on first attempt85%+ across all learnersShelley
4.6 Portfolio requirements uncertain5.3 Coach caseload in Shelley's head
KR3Learners behind on OTJ hoursNo more than 10% at any pointShelley / Coaches
5.4 No at-risk early warning4.1 Onboarding is form-heavy
KR4Dip tests completed with coverage10 per quarter, 100% coach coverageShelley / Crispin
5.1 Manual compliance checking5.2 No single compliance view
Leading indicators that predict eventual 85%+ achievement rate. Actual achievement is a Later outcome (L1) due to 12–13 month programme duration.

Provisional KRs — discuss with Shelley. The 85%+ pass rate is right directionally, but Shelley will have better targets on the specific metrics. For longer-term cohorts, merit and distinction rates matter — not just pass. The KRs above should be treated as discussion points, not fixed targets, until Shelley confirms.
NOW — STRATEGIC
Team-led enrolment process — Crispin involved by choice, not necessity
Operational Independence
FRANCESCA
O4 MEDIUM
KRSuccess CriterionTargetOwner
KR1Learners enrolled where the team led the process end-to-end30 by end of JuneFrancesca
3.3 No structured qualification process3.2 Crispin runs initial assessments6.1 Sales process not AI-assisted
KR2Lead generation from non-Crispin sources50%+ of leadsFrancesca
3.1 Sales depend on Crispin's brand2.7 Individual learners not auto-routed
KR3Crispin's involvement is selectiveCrispin chooses which deals to join (webinar, key accounts) rather than being required on allCrispin
3.2 Crispin runs initial assessments2.1 Sales conversation data lost
Crispin remains involved in the webinar, automated outreach, and deals where his involvement adds value — that's by design, not a gap. The goal is that the team can run the full process without him, not that he's excluded. KR1 proves the model works independently. Full acceleration of the handover happens after 60 live. KR2 ensures the lead source is sustainable beyond Crispin's personal network.
NOW — EXECUTION
Pre-course admin completion time and effort reduced
Operational Independence
SHELLEY / ROB
O5 MEDIUM
KRSuccess CriterionTargetOwner
KR1Elapsed days deal committed to learner-readyBelow 15 working days by JuneShelley / Rob
2.2 Front-load ops info from biz dev2.3 Employers asked same questions twice5.7 Pre-cohort admin manual
KR2Effort score per onboarding Baseline established, 2+ points lower by June (1–10 scale)Shelley / Rob
5.1 Manual compliance checking5.2 No single compliance view3.4 Leadership gap - absorb via automation
KR3Onboarding checklist items auto-triggered at stage gates 80%+ by JuneFrancesca / Shelley
2.4 Delivery team has no pipeline visibility2.5 Lead data needs manual enrichment5.5 Content creation undocumented
KR4Shelley's onboarding time split 70%+ exception handling, <30% routineShelley
4.1 Onboarding is form-heavy5.1 Manual compliance checking
Crispin's top priority. This is the outcome Crispin cares most about personally right now — smooth onboarding and admin is what matters most to him day-to-day. When trade-off decisions arise, this carries weight.

Effort score needs retrospective baselining from last 5 onboardings. Stage-gate automations in Monday.com are the key mechanism.
July — December 2026

Next — Reinforce the scaled model

Five outcomes that prove the model works at 60+ and build on it.

NEXT — STRATEGIC
Onboarding experience starts with learning — compliance in the background
Increase Company Value
SHELLEY / ROB
N1 MEDIUM

The first thing a learner experiences is their personalised skills gap roadmap and an introduction to learning, not a stack of forms. Compliance documentation is collected and processed behind the scenes through the automations built in Now. The employer's first impression is competence and quality, not bureaucracy.

Related Opportunities
2.2 Front-load ops info from biz dev 4.2 No personalised learning plan 4.4 Limited employer progress visibility 6.2 Onboarding doesn't show AI
NEXT — STRATEGIC
Crispin spends less than 20% of time on operations
Operational Independence
CRISPIN
N2 MEDIUM

Building on Now O4 (sales independence), this extends across all operations — delivery oversight, team management, compliance queries, firefighting. Crispin's time shifts to growth, partnerships, and strategic work. The team and systems handle the day-to-day.

Related Opportunities
2.1 Sales conversation data lost 3.1 Sales depend on Crispin's brand 3.4 Leadership gap - absorb via automation 5.6 SME management undocumented
NEXT — STRATEGIC
Sales flywheel — delivery to retention to advocacy to new leads
Financial Self-Sufficiency
FRANCESCA / CRISPIN
N3 LOW

Employers who've been through a cohort are actively referring new employers. Learners completing the programme become advocates. The 10KSB list and similar bought/borrowed networks are no longer the primary pipeline source. Lead generation is self-reinforcing rather than dependent on outbound effort or exhaustible lists.

Related Opportunities
3.5 Prospect list is exhaustible 3.6 Apollo not delivering value 6.4 Marketing doesn't showcase AI 7.2 Alumni community has no shape 7.3 No cross-sell tracking
NEXT — STRATEGIC
Revenue from non-apprenticeship sources reaches 20%
Revenue Diversification
CRISPIN
N4 LOW

Modular CPD, short courses, or consultancy built from existing KSB content generates meaningful revenue. The content already exists — it needs packaging and a commercial model. The previous revenue split was 70/30 between bootcamps and apprenticeships. With bootcamps ending, the target mix is 60/20/20 (apprenticeships / direct sale / consultancy and licensing). This outcome tracks the 40% that isn't apprenticeships.

Related Opportunities
1.3 No stepping stone for not-ready employers 7.1 No modular CPD offering
NEXT — STRATEGIC
Learner platform consolidates tools and demonstrates AI expertise
Increase Company Value
CRISPIN / ROB
N5 MEDIUM

Learners, coaches, and employers interact through a single platform rather than Slack + Google Drive + PICS + Laravel app + Google Forms. The platform itself is a proof point — TCG teaches AI and automation, and the experience of being a TCG learner demonstrates that expertise.

Related Opportunities
4.3 Learner experience fragmented 4.5 OTJ hours feel like busywork 6.1 Sales process not AI-assisted 6.2 Onboarding doesn't show AI 6.3 Internal ops run manually 6.4 Marketing doesn't showcase AI 6.5 Learner mgmt doesn't reflect curriculum
2027 and Beyond

Later — New revenue, new markets

Three outcomes for when the scaled model is working.

LATER — STRATEGIC
85%+ achievement rate sustained at 60+ apprentices
Financial Self-Sufficiency
SHELLEY
L1 MEDIUM

The lagging confirmation that the leading indicators from Now O3 actually predicted correctly. First cohorts at scale are completing and achieving at the same rate as the smaller cohorts did.

Related Opportunities
4.7 No cultural change support 5.3 Coach caseload in Shelley's head 5.4 No at-risk early warning
LATER — STRATEGIC
Alumni community has commercial shape and revenue
Revenue Diversification
CRISPIN
L2 LOW

Completed apprentices and their employers remain commercially engaged. The alumni community has structure beyond a Slack channel — curated content, CPD pathways, events, peer connections. It generates revenue, not just goodwill.

Related Opportunities
7.2 Alumni community has no shape 7.5 No peer community beyond cohort
LATER — STRATEGIC
International licensing or franchise model validated
Revenue Diversification
CRISPIN
L3 LOW

The model for taking TCG's curriculum and delivery approach into international markets is tested. Not necessarily generating significant revenue yet, but the commercial model, legal structure, and first partner are in place.

Related Opportunities
No opportunities mapped yet
Connections

Dependencies

OutcomeDepends OnReason
O1 (60 live)O2 (pipeline velocity)Can't build to 60 live in 3 months if pipeline takes 12 weeks
O1 (60 live)O4 (team-led enrolments)The team must be able to carry the process — Crispin alone can't handle 60
O3 (achievement prediction)O5 (admin reduction)If onboarding is slow and painful, learners start behind
N1 (learning-first onboarding)O5 (admin reduction)Compliance must be automated before it can be invisible
N2 (Crispin <20% ops)O4 (team-led enrolments)Team-led sales is the prerequisite for full operational independence
N3 (sales flywheel)O1 (60 live)Need delivered cohorts before you have advocates
N4 (revenue diversification)N5 (platform)Modular CPD needs a platform to deliver through
L1 (achievement at scale)O3 (achievement prediction)Leading indicators must be tracked before lagging outcome materialises
Working document

March 2026. Sources: Feb discovery session, March coordination meeting, March 10 and 17 process mapping workshops, Rob Brighton ops notes, Shelley Needham PICS data, transformation strategy, metrics inventory, opportunity map.

Created by Specs for The Coders Guild